Brent Crude Set for 8% Weekly Fall on Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire and US-Iran Deal

How it moves markets

energy sector — down: Easing tensions and potential extra supply reduce upward pressure on oil prices.

Chain reaction

Geopolitical tensions ease

Supply concerns diminish

More oil enters global markets

Oil prices decline

Energy sector revenues face pressure

Scenarios

Bull case: The deal holds and supply increases smoothly, keeping oil prices lower and supporting broader economic stability.

Base case: The accord leads to a gradual release of oil that produces a moderate decline in prices.

Bear case: Tensions return quickly and the expected supply increase does not materialize, limiting any price drop.

Winners and losers

Winner — transportation sector: Lower fuel costs improve margins

Loser — energy sector: Reduced oil prices cut revenues

The MAEXO take

Easing supply risks point to lower oil prices and near-term pressure on energy assets.

What to watch next

Updates on ceasefire compliance

Announcements about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz

Weekly changes in Brent crude inventory data

Learn the concept

Supply expectations often move commodity prices faster than actual changes in production.