U.S. Travel Spending Forecast Shows Resilient Domestic Demand in 2026

U.S. Travel Association projects total travel spending to reach $1.37 trillion in 2026, up 1% inflation-adjusted, supported by domestic leisure while international rebounds modestly.

Deloitte and U.S. Travel Association outlooks point to a bifurcated recovery where premium and luxury segments continue outperforming amid economic caution among broader consumers. Domestic leisure spending is expected to rise 0.9% to $909 billion, keeping the sector near 2019 levels when adjusted for inflation. Gen Z and millennial travelers are driving volume, while high-spenders fuel upsells in airlines, hotels, and resorts. This demand signal directly lifts consumer discretionary names in hospitality and transportation, including Booking Holdings, Marriott, and major carriers. Premium cabin and resort strategies already yielding results for airlines and hotel groups are set to extend, supporting margin expansion even if overall volume growth remains modest. AI-enabled demand forecasting and personalization offer further efficiency gains for operators. Traders should watch monthly TSA throughput data, hotel RevPAR trends, and forward booking curves for leisure destinations. Any acceleration above the 1% baseline would be bullish for the group, while persistent inflation or geopolitical flare-ups could cap upside. The forecast underscores travel’s enduring role in the U.S. economy and provides a constructive backdrop for related equities despite macro headwinds.