Economists Expect No Fed Rate Cuts This Year on Inflation Risks
What this means
This news means the central bank will likely keep borrowing costs high for longer because prices are rising faster than expected. Everyday investors may see slower growth in stocks and higher costs for loans or mortgages.
Market mechanics
- SPXdownHigher rates for longer reduce company profits and make stocks less attractive compared to safer options.
- BTCdownRisk assets like bitcoin often fall when borrowing stays expensive and economic growth slows.
What to watch next
- Next monthly inflation report
- Fed meeting statements
- Upcoming jobs data releases
AI-synthesized from public market reporting · Updated May 25, 2026, 4:00 PM
Share this story
Spread the signal — link, social or copy.
Related coverage
Indonesia Central Bank Hikes Rates 50bps to Support Rupiah
Bank Indonesia raised its 7-day reverse repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.25% on May 20, larger than economists expected, for the first time in two years to bolster the rupiah at record lows. The bank kept its 2026 growth outlook at 4.9%-5.7%.
Fed's Favored Inflation Gauge Nears 4% on Iran War Energy Spike
The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measure is rapidly approaching 4% year-over-year, with an 8% surge in April driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict, marking the largest two-month acceleration since late 2021.
US Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Amid Iran War Inflation Fears
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a final reading of 44.8 in May, an all-time low, from 48.2 in the preliminary reading and 49.8 in April, driven by surging gasoline prices linked to the Iran conflict and rising long-term inflation expectations.
Fed Minutes Show Support for Rate Hikes if Inflation Persists Due to Iran War
Federal Reserve officials at the April meeting indicated that some policy firming would likely be needed if inflation remains elevated above 2%, with markets now pricing in potential hikes later in 2026 amid surging oil prices and inflation data. Treasury yields have resumed climbing as traders monitor inflation risks.
US PCE Inflation Gauge Nears 4% on War-Driven Energy Spike
The Federal Reserve’s favored PCE price index is approaching 4% as energy costs surge due to the Iran conflict, with April data expected to show a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the largest two-month acceleration since late 2021.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair amid Iran war-driven inflation pressures
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026. Wall Street is betting on a US rate hike by year-end as the Iran conflict intensifies inflation, pushing expectations for higher borrowing costs.