Bitcoin Trades Below Mining Cost for Five Months, Squeezing Miners

How it moves markets

BTC — down: Ongoing losses for miners increase the chance of additional selling or reduced new supply, weighing on price.

Chain reaction

Miners face sustained losses

Some miners sell holdings to cover costs

Selling adds to available supply

Bitcoin price faces continued downward pressure

Scenarios

Bull case: Limited information available to assess this scenario.

Base case: The sector remains under strain as Bitcoin stays below mining costs, with miners adjusting operations gradually.

Bear case: Miners continue facing losses, leading to more selling or shutdowns that keep Bitcoin under pressure.

Winners and losers

Loser — BTC: Miners under pressure may increase selling, adding to price weakness.

The MAEXO take

The extended period below mining costs creates ongoing challenges for Bitcoin miners and points to continued sector stress.

What to watch next

Updates on miner profitability or shutdowns

Bitcoin price relative to production costs

Any reports of large miner selling activity

Learn the concept

When market prices stay below production costs for an asset, producers often face pressure to cut back or exit, which can affect future supply.